Una sonrisa no basta

La nueva corrida cambiaria que terminó con un dólar cotizado en 34 pesos, fue motivo de análisis en la prensa extranjera. Se observa con preocupación el descontrol económico del gobierno macrista que vuelve a colocar al país en los primeros puestos del riesgo país. La BBC publicó con firma de su corresponsal en la Argentina el artículo que transcribimos.

Macri buscó dar confianza. Generó todo lo contrario. (FOTO: Casa Rosada)

Se dispara el dólar en Argentina: ¿por qué los anuncios y medidas de Macri no están dando resultados?

Daniel Pardo Corresponsal de BBC Mundo en Argentina

Son las 8:30 de la mañana de un miércoles soleado en Buenos Aires y el presidente de Argentina, Mauricio Macri, arranca una cadena nacional con un sonriente “buenos días”.

“La última semana hemos tenido nuevas expresiones de falta de confianza en los mercados”, continúa, y luego anuncia que acordó con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) que se adelante parte de la línea de financiación que se acordó en mayo para evitar el colapso de la economía argentina.

El mensaje dura menos de dos minutos, es escueto y omite detalles sobre cuánto y cuándo será el adelanto.

La idea de Macri, dijo, era calmar los rumores de que Argentina puede volver a declararse en default, una cesación de pagos que sería, al menos, el fracaso político de un gobierno de tecnócratas que fue elegido para ordenar las cuentas.

El objetivo no se cumplió. Al contrario, el peso argentino perdió 8% de su valor, la peor caída en un día desde aquel 8 de mayo, fecha en que Macri anunció la polémica vuelta del FMI

El mensaje que buscaba generar confianza parece solo haberla pulverizado.

El gobierno argentino ha hecho cualquier cantidad de cosas para detener la caída del peso, que ha perdido 50% de su valor en el último año: invirtieron reservas, modificaron gabinete, se endeudaron, reestructuraron la deuda local y subieron las tasas de interés al 45%, la más alta del mundo.

Pero la llamada “corrida cambiara” sigue y con ello se profundiza el miedo entre los argentinos, que acuden al dólar para defenderse de la devaluación.

Errores e infortunios del presente

No importan los anuncios de Macri. Los argentinos acuden al dólar apenas ven que su precio está cada vez más alto.

Es difícil decidir por dónde resulta conveniente comenzar una explicación de lo que pasa con la economía argentina: si por sus desbarajustes históricos y estructurales, o por los errores e infortunios del presente.

Porque, por supuesto, hay un poco de ambas cosas.

Macri, exempresario y millonario, quiso resolver los problemas heredados del gobierno de Cristina Kirchner —alta inflación y déficit fiscal— con un modelo liberal y de mercado.

De manera gradual, recortó la nómina pública, bajó impuestos a exportaciones y aumentó las tarifas de los servicios subsidiados, entre otras. Pactó con mercados para poder endeudarse y con privados para expandir la obra pública.

Pero cuando Macri quiso “volver al mundo”, el mundo estaba en otra tónica: auge del proteccionismo, aumento de tasas de interés en Estados Unidos y ambiente de tensión política y financiera.

Cuando —en mayo— fue evidente que el gradualismo estaba agotado y había que acudir al FMI, un organismo que casi nunca ha tenido buenas experiencias en este país, el capital político de Macri a nivel local ya estaba muy desgastado.

Para entonces, los mercados se empezaban a preguntan si su proyecto, supuestamente pensado para dos décadas, tendría siquiera cuatro años.

Ahora, tanto la inflación como el déficit fiscal son más altos que cuando llegó Macri al poder, hace casi tres años. Y es casi seguro que el país volverá a la recesión.

Dentro de un año hay elecciones y muchos —sobre todo los mercados— se preguntan si en medio de esta crisis económica el proyecto liberal de Macri puede reelegirse o volverá el proteccionismo del pasado.

Cristina Kirchner puede ser candidata, pero si bien mantiene un 30% de aceptación, carga con cinco causas de corrupción por las que está imputada o procesada.

La última de ellas, conocida como “los cuadernos de las coimas K”, da la impresión de que la corrupción era sistemática y estaba enquistada en el seno del poder político y económico argentino, cosa que, también, ha lacerado la confianza de los inversionistas en el país sudamericano.

Los mercados no terminan de confiar

Pocas cosas golpean más el capital política local que acudir el FMI, como hizo Macri.

Y es que confianza no es algo que precisamente haya generado Argentina a lo largo de su historia.

Al menos desde los años 70, gobiernos autoritarios y democráticos han cambiado una y otra vez el modelo económico que se busca aplicar a uno de los exportadores de alimentos más grandes del mundo.

Lo único que ha quedado del salto entre liberalismo y proteccionismo han sido déficits comercial y fiscal estructurales y una idea general de que en Argentina, el país que más ha caído en default después de Venezuela, cuesta confiar.

A las 8:30 de la mañana del miércoles, Macri probó que cuenta con el apoyo político y financiero del FMI.

De hecho, 10 horas después de la cadena nacional la directora del organismo, Christine Lagarde, comunicó que “reiteré mi apoyo a los esfuerzos de política de la Argentina y nuestra disposición a ayudar al gobierno a revisar sus planes de política económica”.

Pero durante el día quedó claro que esto no basta para los inversionistas, pendientes de una agenda local dominada por protestas, escándalos de corrupción y números macroeconómicos en rojo.

Para ellos, una sonrisa minutos antes de que abran los mercados no es suficiente.

Fuente: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-45350737?ocid=socialflow_twitter

Del pueblo Digital

Permitida su reproducción total y/o parcial citando la fuente.

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